The Katana Programme ended September with a performance of +3.90%. Bitcoin closed the month at a price of $63,800. The mid month Federal Reserve 50 basis point interest rate cut injected bullish enthusiasm into the crypto markets. We were long BTC on the daily time frame going into the announcement. Additional long positions were established and held into the rally that ultimately met resistance at $66,500. An end of month retracement back to support at $63,500 saw our long positions exit at profit. The shorter time frame was stopped out of longs a couple of times over the last two weeks as price vacillated around the $64,000 level.

Geopolitical and macro events continue to impact Bitcoin. The Bitcoin correlation with the Nasdaq is currently very high so short term BTC price direction is often at the mercy of US stock Index prices. At the same time, Chinese authorities appear to be adopting a Draghi attitude of ‘whatever it takes to lift markets’. This fiscal and monetary stimulus should be supportive of global risk asset price levels. Against this, changes in Middle East & Ukraine tension levels can cause ‘risk off’ sentiment to take hold at any time. Expect increased focus on the US elections as we move through October.  Overall, we expect this new leg of the macroeconomic cycle to be conducive to Bitcoin price resilience into year end.