The Katana Program ended December with a performance of -10.21% and finished 2024 with a net return of 32.38%. Bitcoin closed the month at a price of $93,355 after opening the month trading at $96,465. The Katana algos exited the last long positions from November at an average of $93,655. Early in the month there was a rapid 10,000-point drop within three minutes to $92,500 after Bitcoin penetrated $100,000 for the first time. Our algos established shorts positions on this drop but these were quickly stopped out on a rapid reversal. Long positions were then established on a recovery through $100,000. Highs at $108,500 were rejected and our longs were stopped out as Bitcoin reversed back through $100,000 again. Continued weakness into month and year end saw new shorts established around $93,000. The program remains short entering 2025.

There was a notable increase in Bitcoin accumulation, with reports of 225k BTC being bought in December, 83% higher than the previous month. Against this positive news, macro influences on the Bitcoin price were dominated by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on interest rates with fewer rate cuts in 2025 now expected.

A stronger US Dollar provided additional headwinds for Bitcoin. The U.S. Treasury needs to roll over $7.6 trillion in debt in 2025. Should there be any difficulty in the bond markets digesting this new paper, renewed QE may be necessary, a distinct positive for the Bitcoin price.

Our hybrid Trend and Momentum program Odachi fared better in December with a -4.56% return, a pleasing result from our research and diversification efforts.

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